I attended an excellent conference on March 3, 2016, put on by WorkBoat® exploring the “OSV Capital Outlook for 2016 and Beyond”. The conference featured a diverse and highly experienced panel of speakers including investment and marketing analysts and consultants, vessel operators, shipyard executives and WorkBoat® editors. You may want to read WorkBoat’s® own blog post about the conference; my takeaways from attending are as follows:
- Praveen Narra, a Raymond James analyst, indicated that while oil prices appear to have bottomed and are beginning to climb toward an expected range of $65 to $70 per barrel in 2017 and 2018, a sustainable turnaround in OSV day rates and utilization should not be expected until at least 2018.
- Mr. Narra stated that actual rig tendering activity will likely continue to decline in 2016 with no substantial uptick in day rates until 2017.
- Richard Sanchez, a marine analyst with IHS Energy-Petrodata MarineBase, cautioned that when drilling activity does resume, it is likely to first rebound onshore rather than offshore, as onshore projects can be brought to production much faster, more efficiently and at less cost than offshore projects.
- Sanchez is seeing that the downturn in OSV utilization is affecting shallow water platform supply vessels more than large PSVs and anchor handling tugs, with day rates for shallow water PSVs at below break-even levels.
- Matthew Rigdon, a senior executive with Jackson Offshore Operators, cited as one of the lingering effects of this downturn the loss of trained, certified and licensed labor to operate vessels when the rebound finally does occur. Many mariners will move to jobs in other industries. Additionally, U.S. Coast Guard certification requirements necessitate expensive periodic training and recertification, the cost of which is traditionally shared between OSV operators and the mariners. Many out-of-work mariners may not have the means or inclination to maintain these certifications, which will shrink the pool of qualified labor available when their services are needed.
- Allen Brooks, managing director at PPHB, LP, cited as the “elephant” in the rig market the degree of debt-load of drilling companies. This also is a significant concern for OSV operators. High debt service obligation coupled with diminished cash flows due to low utilization and low day rates will lead to substantial destressed asset activity. However, the amount of this activity is unknown. It is also unknown when investors will begin to seize the opportunity to acquire these assets.
Armed with knowledge of the bleak outlook, OSV operators should be pro-active in making decisions regarding stacking of vessels, redeployment or laying off personnel, cost cutting and restructuring debt-loads. Bankers are traditionally hesitant to repossess OSVs. There is significant costs in storing and maintaining them pending resale and these costs could mount if, as is the case now, prospects for an advantageous resale are dim. It should be emphasized that the current downturn in the OSV market does not only affect the Gulf, but is a global phenomenon. Thus, there will be no buyers for these vessels until the market begins to rebound. This gives OSV operators leverage in restructuring negotiations. [On that note, see my post of November 23, 2015.]